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Finding a family doctor in Germany is already hard in many places, and a new study says it is about to get harder. Research published on 20 July 2026 by the IGES Institut for the Bosch Health Campus warns that Germany’s Hausarzt shortage could leave around 12,000 general practitioner posts unfilled by 2040. That is close to one in five of all Hausarzt seats in the country, and it is nearly triple the roughly 4,400 posts that sit empty today.
A Hausarzt is a general practitioner, the family doctor who is the first point of contact for most health problems in Germany. For foreign residents, this is the doctor who manages routine care, issues sick notes, refers you to specialists, and coordinates prescriptions. The study, titled “Primärversorgung 2035+”, was designed around Baden-Württemberg but draws conclusions for the whole country, and its message is that the gap between the number of family doctors and the number of patients who need one is set to widen sharply.
What the study predicts about the Hausarzt shortage
The IGES forecast projects that the density of general practitioners will fall by around 5 percent nationwide by 2040. On paper that sounds modest, but the decline is spread very unevenly. According to the study, almost one in five of Germany’s roughly 400 districts (Landkreise) would slip into undersupply, defined as coverage below 75 percent of the calculated need. A further 15 percent of districts would sit right on the edge of that threshold.
The reasons lie in the age structure of the profession. Between 2009 and 2025 the number of general practitioners grew by only 4 percent, the weakest growth of any medical field. Over the same period the average age of a Hausarzt rose from 52.6 to 55 years, and the share of family doctors over the age of 65 climbed from about 6 percent to 16.5 percent. Roughly a third of all general practitioners are now 60 or older, which means a large wave of retirements is approaching with too few younger doctors behind it.
Where the Hausarzt shortage will bite hardest
The pain will not be shared equally, and rural districts are set to lose the most. The study identifies four districts in North Rhine-Westphalia as the hardest hit, with projected drops in general practitioner density of between 46 and 48 percent by 2040. As reported by t-online and the Deutsches Ärzteblatt, these are the Hochsauerlandkreis at around minus 48 percent, Minden-Lübbecke and Paderborn at about minus 47 percent each, and the Märkischer Kreis at roughly minus 46 percent.
Other regions face steep declines too. The IGES analysis flags parts of Rhineland-Palatinate, including the Altenkirchen district and the Westerwaldkreis, where density is expected to fall by more than 30 percent. The pattern is consistent: cities and their surrounding areas tend to keep enough doctors, while thinly populated rural districts struggle to attract and retain them. For anyone weighing a move to a smaller town or the countryside, the availability of a family doctor is becoming a real factor to check in advance.
What the researchers want to change
The authors argue that simply training more doctors will not close the gap on its own, and that the way primary care is organised has to change. Their recommendations, echoed in the press release carried by presseportal.de, centre on interprofessional teams in which practice staff, nurses and other trained professionals take on tasks that do not require a physician. This delegation of routine work is meant to free up the limited time of general practitioners for the cases that truly need them.
Telemedicine is the second pillar. The study calls for a consistent expansion of video consultations and remote monitoring so that patients in underserved areas can reach medical advice without long journeys. The researchers also want primary care anchored as a distinct, properly managed part of the health system, with clearer responsibilities and more attractive working conditions to keep practices open when their owners retire. These ideas are proposals for policymakers, not measures that are in force yet.
What this means for expats trying to register
If you are new to Germany, the practical takeaway is to secure a family doctor early rather than waiting until you are ill. You do not have to be assigned a Hausarzt; you choose one yourself and register as a patient at the practice, usually by calling or visiting to ask whether they are taking new patients (neue Patienten). Bring your health insurance card, and be prepared for some practices in busy or rural areas to have closed their lists. Our guide to accessing medical care in Germany walks through how appointments, referrals and emergencies work.
The Hausarzt shortage also makes it worth understanding how the wider system fits together, including the role of statutory and private insurance and how specialists are reached through your family doctor. If a practice near you is full, you can try neighbouring towns, ask your insurer for help finding a doctor accepting patients, or use the nationwide appointment service reachable by phone. Our overview of the German healthcare system explains these routes in more detail. Planning ahead is the best defence against a shortage that, on current forecasts, is only going to grow.
