Gas price tops 100 euros before winter

The European wholesale gas price topped 100 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) during trading on Wednesday, 28 October, for the first time since 2022. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract for delivery next month was quoted at around 100.3 euros, more than 4 percent higher than the day before, according to the dpa-AFX news agency. Reuters, citing data from the ICE exchange, reported that the gas price touched the mark in the early afternoon and then slipped back just below it, to about 99.7 euros.

The jump comes as the heating season begins, with German storage sites much emptier than usual for the time of year. Households will not see higher bills straight away, but many are likely to receive price letters for 2027 in the coming weeks. The rise has implications for people living in Germany.

Why the gas price is rising so fast

The main driver remains the war involving Iran, which has shaken energy markets since late February. Supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East have been disrupted, and Europe, which depends heavily on LNG imports, is competing harder with buyers in Asia. Strong demand from China, which is filling its own storage, has diverted LNG cargoes away from Europe, analysts quoted by Handelsblatt said.

Weather forecasts add to the pressure. Forecasts point to below-average temperatures at the start of November, which would raise heating demand and draw down reserves earlier than planned. The climb has been steep: in early September, TTF was still trading below 70 euros, AFP reported, and according to dpa-AFX the price has more than tripled since the start of 2026. It is nevertheless far below the levels of 2022, when the price rose well above 300 euros after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Storage levels lower than a year ago

Across the EU, gas storage facilities are almost 75 percent full, compared with around 83 percent at the same point last year, according to AGSI, the storage transparency platform of the European gas infrastructure operators. Germany has less gas in storage. Its storage sites are only about 61 to 62 percent full, against roughly 75 percent a year earlier.

The federal government has already reacted. Last month, the state-owned company SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe) was instructed to buy additional gas for storage, dpa-AFX reported. Lower reserves mean that Germany will rely more on ongoing imports during the coldest weeks, which makes the market sensitive to every cold snap and every new supply problem.

When households will feel the higher gas price

Most private customers will not see the jump on their next bill. Energy suppliers buy a large share of their gas months or even years ahead, and most households have longer-term contracts, so movements on the exchange reach existing customers only with a delay, ORF and t-online point out. Tariffs for new customers react much faster.

Even before this week's spike, the comparison portal Verivox expected widespread price increases for gas customers at the turn of the year, of between 10 and 20 percent depending on the tariff. For a model household that uses 20,000 kilowatt hours a year, that would mean roughly 250 to 500 euros more per year. Verivox also expects network charges (Netzentgelte), the fees for using the gas grid, to rise by around 3 percent nationwide in 2027.

Suppliers must give notice of price increases. According to the Bundesnetzagentur, the federal network agency, household customers on special contracts with a supplier must be told about a price change at least one month in advance. In the basic supply tariff (Grundversorgung), the notice period is six weeks, so letters announcing an increase from 1 January 2027 have to arrive by around 20 November.

Check your contract and your right to cancel

A customer who receives a price increase notice usually has a special termination right (Sonderkündigungsrecht), regardless of the normal contract term. The cancellation has to reach the supplier before the new price takes effect, and the Bundesnetzagentur recommends sending it in a way that proves delivery and asking for written confirmation. Customers in the Grundversorgung can leave at any time with two weeks' notice anyway. One exception applies: a change that only passes on a different VAT rate does not give a special right to cancel.

A higher monthly advance payment (Abschlag) alone is not the same as a price increase and does not trigger the special right. Suppliers usually adjust the Abschlag when prices or expected consumption change. If you believe the new amount is too high, you can explain in writing why your consumption will be lower, and you can ask the supplier to justify any increase it has not explained.

What the gas price jump means for tenants and expats

Many expats rent flats with central gas heating. In that case the landlord buys the gas and passes the cost on through the Nebenkosten, the service charges that tenants pay as a monthly advance together with the rent. Higher purchase costs therefore show up in the annual service charge statement (Betriebskostenabrechnung), often many months later and sometimes as a large back payment. Tenants can ask their landlord to raise the monthly advance voluntarily, and setting some money aside for the next statement is a sensible precaution. Our article on tenant rights and responsibilities explains the basics.

Tenants with their own gas contract, for example for a gas boiler inside the flat (Gasetagenheizung), should check their post in November, compare offers as soon as a price letter arrives and use the special termination right if a cheaper tariff is available. Our overview of energy providers and options explains how switching works. Using less energy remains the most direct way to limit costs: lowering the room temperature slightly, keeping radiators free and bled, and airing rooms briefly but fully instead of leaving windows tilted all reduce consumption.

Whether the gas price settles around 100 euros or climbs further depends largely on the weather over the next weeks and on the situation in the Middle East. Even if prices ease again, the low storage levels mean that the market is likely to remain nervous for the rest of the winter.