Germany’s Africa Pivot Gains Urgency

Germany Africa pivot is no longer a slogan. At the G20 finance ministers’ meeting in Durban, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said Germany had neglected Africa and announced an initial €10 million contribution to a World Bank trust fund tied to the Compact with Africa. He framed this as the opening step toward a deeper partnership with the Global South built on investment, trade and human rights.

Stagnant exports show why a Germany Africa pivot is needed

Trade figures underline the challenge. German exports to Sub‑Saharan Africa amounted to €13.3 billion in 2014 and €14.2 billion in 2024. After inflation, growth is effectively zero, even as countries such as Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal post robust expansion and rising demand for infrastructure, consumer goods and energy. Competitors from China, India, Turkey and the Gulf have captured market share while German sales flatlined.

Competitors race for markets and minerals

Analysts describe a renewed race for Africa as the relative weight of the EU and the United States declines. China has multiplied exports and investment and now dominates critical supply chains. It controls more than 60 percent of rare‑earth mining and about 90 percent of processing capacity, and continues to expand in battery metals. Export restrictions by Beijing exposed Europe’s dependence.

Raw materials at the core of any Germany Africa pivot

Access to cobalt, bauxite, lithium and rare earth elements is decisive for batteries, wind turbines and electric motors. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chinese companies own 15 of the 19 leading cobalt and copper sites, leaving only a handful of alternatives if political tensions disrupt Chinese supplies. German industry bodies warn that Europe must move from buyer to investor if it wants reliable volumes.

Trump’s mineral diplomacy raises the stakes

The United States has paired security mediation with mineral deals. After Rwanda and the DRC signed a Washington peace agreement in June, language on de‑risking mineral supply chains and joint value chains with U.S. partners featured prominently. Former President Donald Trump celebrated the accord and claimed it secured access to Congolese minerals, a statement that drew strong criticism but illustrates Washington’s assertive approach.

Business urges speed: an Africa strategy with instruments

German business groups and the Sub‑Saharan Africa Initiative of German Business call for an “Africa turnaround” and a coherent, long‑term plan. Executives argue that Germany’s strengths lie in greenfield investment, local partnerships and sustainable operations, but they also stress that embassies must actively unblock permits and financing, as peers in Belgium, the Netherlands and France already do.

Three investment paths for a Germany Africa pivot

Policy experts outline three complementary routes. First, backward integration: companies secure inputs by investing directly in mines, as earlier energy ventures did. Second, a joint industry vehicle that develops projects and signs long‑term offtake contracts. Third, a publicly backed raw‑materials company to catalyze projects, provide political risk cover and crowd in private capital. Each mine typically requires investments in the tens to hundreds of millions of euros, plus exploration and processing capacity.

Development policy aligned with supply security

The coalition agreement signals that development cooperation should support national interests, including resource access. Analysts argue this requires a shift from training projects toward structured risk‑sharing, export credit enhancements and insurance that make capital‑intensive projects in high‑risk jurisdictions bankable. Without such tools, calls to “buy from Africa rather than China” will not translate into supply.

Germany Africa pivot must balance standards and speed

Berlin emphasizes that partnerships should respect labor, environmental and human‑rights standards. Companies say these standards are compatible with competitive timelines if permitting is predictable and financing packages are complete. Japan’s experience shows that partial diversification without processing capacity leaves leverage with China; Europe will need both upstream investment and midstream refining to reduce exposure.

First signals: finance pledges, strategy work, market openings

Klingbeil’s €10 million pledge to a World Bank trust fund is intended as seed capital to crowd in larger G20 contributions and private investment. Business associations expect additional steps as Berlin finalizes its Africa strategy and implements the “Africa turnaround” demanded by industry. Early targets include grid upgrades, renewables, critical‑minerals projects and local processing to keep more value in partner countries.

What success would look like

Benchmarks for a credible Germany Africa pivot include sustained growth in exports and investment, a pipeline of German‑backed mining and processing projects with transparent ESG safeguards, diversified offtake contracts in cobalt, manganese and rare earths, and embassies equipped to solve financing and regulatory obstacles quickly. If these elements materialize, Germany can reduce strategic dependencies while supporting African industrialization.