Germany No Longer Top Asylum Destination as Applications Plummet and Legal Debate Intensifies

Application Numbers Fall Sharply Across Germany

In the first quarter of 2025, Germany recorded a significant decline in asylum applications, with the total number falling to 41,123. This marks a stark drop from the same period in 2024, when 71,061 applications were filed. March 2025 saw only 10,647 applications, including 8,983 first-time requests. This is not only a 45.3 percent decrease compared to March 2024, but also the lowest March figure reported in three years.

Germany, long considered the leading destination for asylum seekers in the European Union, is now in third place. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), France and Spain both recorded more asylum applications in February 2025, overtaking Germany for the first time in years. France received 13,080 applications, while Spain reported 12,975. Germany followed with 12,775.

The reasons for this shift are complex. While government officials credit national and European measures, experts suggest a combination of domestic policy changes, developments in countries of origin, and broader regional dynamics.

Border Controls and Policy Changes Play a Role

Germany’s Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) emphasized that the country’s strict border controls and enhanced cooperation within the European Union have helped to reduce irregular migration. Since autumn 2024, border police have conducted random checks along all borders, turning away approximately 50,000 individuals. These include people previously denied asylum who attempted to reenter.

Additionally, Germany has tightened asylum laws. New policies grant law enforcement more authority to search refugee housing and allow longer detention before deportation. Notably, Germany has also resumed deportations to Afghanistan after a long suspension. These measures are intended to discourage unlawful entry and signal a firmer migration stance.

However, researchers caution against attributing the trend entirely to national policies. Migration decisions are often influenced by personal networks, access to healthcare, safety, and education in the receiving country.

Fewer Arrivals from Key Source Countries

The decline in asylum requests has been particularly sharp among applicants from Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey. In the first quarter of 2025, first-time applications from Syrians dropped from 19,687 to 9,861 compared to the previous year. Afghan applications fell by 42.5 percent to 5,616, while Turkish applications declined by over 61 percent, reaching just 3,755.

One factor contributing to the decrease in Syrian applications is the political situation in the country. After the fall of the Assad regime and the installation of a transitional government, efforts to stabilize the country may have reduced the urgency for some to flee.

The BAMF also pointed to Serbia’s actions at its border with Hungary as an important external influence. Tighter controls there have limited access to migration routes traditionally used by asylum seekers heading to Germany.

European Asylum System and the Dublin Agreement Under Pressure

Despite ongoing discussions about a reformed European asylum policy (GEAS), the Dublin Regulation, which governs the distribution of asylum seekers within the EU, continues to operate inefficiently. From January to March 2025, Germany submitted 13,223 requests to return asylum seekers to the EU countries where they first entered. Only 8,929 of these were approved, and in just 1,715 cases was the actual transfer carried out.

This situation illustrates the challenges of achieving a balanced and functional asylum system across EU member states. While new legislative frameworks are being negotiated, enforcement remains limited, and the burden continues to fall unevenly on countries like Germany.

Legal Limits to Restrictive Proposals

The debate over asylum reform has also returned to legal fundamentals. Some political voices have called for fixed limits or quotas for the number of refugees Germany accepts each year. However, legal experts stress that such limits are incompatible with Germany’s constitutional and international obligations.

Professor Nora Markard, a specialist in international law, explained that any move to abolish individual asylum rights would require Germany to withdraw from a wide range of treaties, including the Geneva Refugee Convention and the European Convention on Human Rights. It would also violate EU law, specifically the Charter of Fundamental Rights and several binding directives.

Even if Germany were to leave these frameworks, the prohibition on returning individuals to countries where they face persecution, torture, or inhuman treatment—known as the principle of non-refoulement—would still apply. This principle is considered part of jus cogens, or peremptory international law, and cannot be overridden by national legislation.

Markard emphasized that while additional humanitarian intake programs and refugee quotas could complement the asylum system, they cannot replace legal protections for individuals arriving at the border seeking refuge.

Protection Status and Processing Backlogs

The protection rate—the share of asylum seekers granted recognized status—has dropped to 18.5 percent. This is less than half of the 2024 rate, which stood at 44.4 percent. However, BAMF officials caution that the current figure may not be meaningful, as a freeze has been placed on most asylum decisions for Syrian applicants due to the uncertain political situation in their home country.

As of the end of March 2025, nearly 181,000 asylum cases remained pending in Germany, a 7.5 percent decrease from the previous month. The halt in Syrian cases contributes significantly to this backlog. There is currently no timeline for when these decisions will resume.

Public and Political Reactions

The drop in asylum numbers has been welcomed by the CDU and SPD, who are negotiating the formation of a new federal government. Lower migration rates reduce pressure on municipalities already struggling with housing and integration capacity.

However, discussions about introducing hard limits on refugee admissions are expected to continue. Proponents argue it would help authorities plan better, while critics stress the legal and moral obligations Germany carries.

The current trend, while politically convenient for some, has not resolved the systemic challenges facing the German and European asylum systems. Legal frameworks, human rights obligations, and humanitarian considerations continue to shape a complex and evolving debate.