Coalition Talks in Eastern Germany Face Challenges as SPD and BSW Negotiate

Negotiations to form new governments in eastern German states, including Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, are facing significant obstacles. The potential coalitions, involving the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and the newly founded Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), are crucial for avoiding partnerships with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), but disagreements between the parties are complicating the process. The ongoing discussions are marked by ideological differences and political maneuvering, especially regarding Germany’s foreign policy on Ukraine and defense matters.

Coalition Talks Stalled in Saxony

Saxony has emerged as one of the most contentious states in the coalition negotiations. Efforts to form a coalition between the CDU, SPD, and BSW have faced difficulties, as highlighted by a failed vote to elect a member of the BSW to the Landtag’s presidium. The failure of the BSW candidate to gain sufficient support, coupled with the rejection of an SPD candidate twice, underscored the fragile nature of the talks.

The incident, described as a “power play” by Sabine Zimmermann, the BSW’s leader in Saxony, indicates the strained relationship between the parties. CDU leader and Saxony’s Minister-President Michael Kretschmer has so far resisted the idea of forming a minority government, which has been suggested as an alternative if coalition talks fail. Kretschmer has made it clear that if necessary, he would prefer new elections over governing with an unstable coalition.

The political landscape in Saxony remains uncertain, with many questioning whether the BSW, which has taken a strong anti-NATO and anti-weapons stance, is truly committed to governing. The BSW has also sparked internal disputes, including a leadership contest within its parliamentary faction, which further complicated the negotiations. These tensions raise doubts about whether the coalition can come together, especially given the BSW’s opposition to military aid to Ukraine and its calls for an investigation into Germany’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Progress in Thuringia, but Challenges Remain

Thuringia, by contrast, has seen more progress in coalition negotiations, with CDU and SPD leaders, Mario Voigt and Katja Wolf, showing signs of cooperation with the BSW. During the inaugural session of the Thuringian Landtag, the parties worked together to resist actions by the AfD, with Voigt and Wolf advocating for a “new political culture” and “greater collaboration.”

Despite this cooperation, some within the SPD remain skeptical of a potential partnership with the BSW. Concerns have been raised by the party’s youth wing and women’s group, both of which favor moving into the opposition rather than entering a coalition with the BSW, which they see as a risky and unpredictable partner. The BSW’s policy stances, including its opposition to US missile deployments in Germany, are seen as contentious points that could create friction within any future government.

While the coalition talks in Thuringia are ongoing, the CDU, SPD, and BSW have agreed to continue discussions on key issues like social cohesion and regional identity. However, the potential reliance on support from the Left Party or abstentions in key votes raises concerns about the stability of any future government, with many questioning whether a slim majority will be enough to govern effectively.

Brandenburg: A Complex Partnership in the Making

In Brandenburg, where the SPD achieved the largest share of votes in the recent Landtag election, the potential coalition with the BSW has also encountered difficulties. SPD Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, who initially viewed the BSW with skepticism, especially its leader Sahra Wagenknecht, has now had to engage more closely with the party as the most viable option for forming a government. Wagenknecht, known for her strong stance against military aid to Ukraine and her opposition to NATO, has become a central figure in coalition talks, despite her earlier criticisms of the SPD’s actions in other states.

A first meeting between the SPD and BSW in Brandenburg was described as “constructive” by both sides, though it remains unclear how the parties will navigate key policy differences. Wagenknecht’s party is demanding concessions on several issues, including a halt to US missile deployments and a reassessment of Germany’s COVID-19 response, which could complicate the talks.

Robert Crumbach, the BSW’s leader in Brandenburg, echoed Wagenknecht’s calls for a cautious approach to coalition-building, emphasizing that any agreement must align with the national leadership’s vision. Meanwhile, Woidke faces pressure from within his own party to avoid ceding too much ground to the BSW, with some SPD members urging him to remain firm in negotiations.

Calls for Diplomacy in Ukraine Crisis

Amid the complex coalition negotiations, the three key political leaders from Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia—Woidke, Kretschmer, and Voigt—have jointly called for a more robust diplomatic effort by Germany and the EU to address the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In a joint opinion piece published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, they argued that a stronger international alliance is needed to bring Russia to the negotiating table and secure a ceasefire.

Their stance has drawn criticism from those who believe any peace deal that favors Russian terms would be unacceptable to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the trio’s call for diplomacy signals an important shift in the regional political discourse and could influence the direction of foreign policy discussions within any future coalitions.

The Road Ahead for Eastern German Politics

As coalition talks continue in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, the parties involved face significant challenges in finding common ground. The BSW’s rise has complicated the traditional political landscape in these eastern states, where the SPD and CDU have historically dominated. Now, with the BSW positioned as a potential kingmaker, the parties must navigate a new and unpredictable political environment.

The outcomes of these negotiations will have long-lasting effects, not just for the individual states, but for Germany’s overall political trajectory, particularly in relation to foreign policy, defense, and social issues. With parties still grappling over key policy differences and questions of governance stability, the path to forming functional coalitions remains fraught with uncertainty.