Germany’s Current Position on Support for Ukraine

Germany’s stance on supporting Ukraine is facing increased pressure from political parties pushing for a shift in the country’s foreign policy. After recent state elections in eastern Germany, the rise of populist parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has brought the issue of military support for Ukraine into the forefront of political discourse. These parties oppose further arms deliveries and advocate for stronger ties with Russia, challenging the current federal government’s position.

Shifting Sentiment in Eastern Germany

The outcome of the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia signals a growing divide in public opinion on Ukraine policy. While Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government have reiterated their commitment to supporting Ukraine for “as long as necessary,” many in eastern Germany are wary of the consequences of continued involvement in the war. According to surveys, 76% of eastern Germans fear that the country could be drawn into a military conflict, a stark contrast to the 44% who share that concern in the west.

Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent figure in the new BSW party, has capitalized on this sentiment, framing the election as a choice between war and peace. Her message resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, particularly in regions with historical ties to the former Soviet Union, where views on Russia tend to be less critical. This divide poses a challenge for the federal government, which must balance regional sentiment with its commitment to Ukraine and its allies.

The Rise of Populist Parties

Both the AfD and BSW have seen a surge in support, with foreign policy playing a key role in their success. The AfD has long opposed arms deliveries to Ukraine, calling instead for improved relations with Russia. Meanwhile, Wagenknecht’s BSW party has made it clear that it would only join a state government if it pushed for more diplomatic efforts and less military support for Kyiv.

The state elections have given these parties a stronger platform to challenge Germany’s Ukraine policy. In Thuringia, the AfD emerged as the largest party, further increasing its influence. In Saxony, the CDU narrowly edged out the AfD, but the pressure from populist forces remains strong, particularly as coalition talks begin.

Foreign Policy and Regional Politics

While foreign policy is not typically determined at the state level, the elections in Saxony and Thuringia could have significant implications for Germany’s overall stance on Ukraine. The CDU, which is likely to lead the next government in Saxony, has already faced internal divisions over the issue. State Premier Michael Kretschmer has called for a “freeze” on the war in Ukraine, a position that has been met with criticism from his own party members at the federal level.

In Thuringia, the situation is even more complex. With the AfD and BSW holding considerable influence, the CDU will have to navigate a delicate balancing act. Although the CDU has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, it has not entirely dismissed working with the BSW. Such a partnership could shift the political landscape in the state and potentially weaken Germany’s unified support for Ukraine at the national level.

Germany’s Commitment to Ukraine

Despite the growing political pressure, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has reaffirmed Germany’s long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine. Speaking at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Ramstein, Pistorius stated that Germany would continue providing military assistance through 2026, with a focus on air defense and other critical systems. He emphasized that Germany’s actions are in line with international law, allowing Ukrainian forces to use German-supplied weapons for defense, including in strikes on Russian territory if necessary.

However, Germany remains cautious about supplying long-range weapons that could be used for attacks deep within Russian territory. This cautious approach reflects the balance the government seeks to maintain between supporting Ukraine and avoiding direct involvement in the conflict.

Poland’s Role in Supporting Ukraine

Poland has taken a more aggressive stance in supporting Ukraine, supplying significant amounts of military equipment, including PT-91 “Twardy” tanks, which are modernized versions of Soviet-era T-72s. Unlike Germany, Poland has imposed no restrictions on how these weapons can be used, granting Ukraine full authority over their deployment, even for operations inside Russia.

This difference in approach highlights the varying strategies within Europe regarding military support for Ukraine. While Germany focuses on cautious, legally grounded assistance, Poland has adopted a more proactive policy, directly challenging Russian aggression and signaling its readiness to confront potential threats from Moscow.

The Broader European Response

Germany’s role in supporting Ukraine is part of a broader European effort to counter Russian aggression. However, the political dynamics within Germany, particularly in its eastern regions, could complicate this effort. Public support for Ukraine remains strong in many parts of Europe, but in Germany, the longer the war drags on, the more difficult it may become to sustain this support, especially as populist parties gain influence.

As European nations continue to provide military and economic aid to Ukraine, the internal political debates within Germany will likely play a key role in shaping the future of the conflict. With the federal elections approaching in 2025, Ukraine policy will remain a contentious issue, potentially reshaping the political landscape in one of Europe’s most influential countries.