CDU Wins NRW Local Elections As AfD Surges

CDU Remains Strongest Party, SPD Weakens Further

The local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany’s most populous state, have confirmed the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) as the leading political force. According to projections, the CDU secured around 34 percent of the vote, nearly identical to its result in 2020. The Social Democrats (SPD) followed with approximately 22 percent, continuing their long-term decline and recording another historically low performance.

For both traditional parties, the outcome marks one of the weakest showings since the state was founded in 1946. Despite this, their results still stand well above their current national polling numbers. Analysts view the NRW election as a key political test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who entered office earlier this year and personally campaigned in the state alongside NRW’s Minister President Hendrik Wüst.

AfD Achieves Historic Gains, Greens Suffer Heavy Losses

The most striking result came from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which tripled its share of the vote compared to 2020. With about 16.5 percent, the party made deep inroads in several municipalities, reflecting growing voter dissatisfaction on issues such as migration, security, and social policy. In cities like Gelsenkirchen, once strongholds of the SPD, the AfD has emerged as a serious challenger, even advancing to potential mayoral runoffs.

By contrast, the Greens experienced a severe setback, dropping from their record 20 percent in 2020 to just over 11 percent this year. The Free Democrats (FDP) also declined, finishing at 3.5 percent, while the Left Party gained modestly, reaching around 5.5 percent. Turnout was notably higher than in the last local election, climbing above 58 percent—the strongest participation in three decades.

Political Reactions To The Results

Minister President Hendrik Wüst acknowledged the CDU’s win but warned against complacency in light of the AfD’s surge. He described the outcome as a wake-up call for all democratic parties, stressing that questions about migration and social fairness must be addressed more convincingly. Wüst noted that even his own party should not treat the victory lightly, as the broader political message from voters is one of discontent.

AfD leaders hailed the result as a mandate for their policies, framing it as a public vote on the direction of the country. Party representatives claimed that ignoring voter concerns would only strengthen their movement further. Their momentum was particularly visible in former industrial centers where economic and social challenges remain acute.

National Significance For Chancellor Merz

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the NRW elections carry symbolic weight. The state is his political home region, and this was the first major vote since his government took office in Berlin. Merz had anticipated a strong AfD showing and signaled readiness to adapt his strategy. He promised to sharpen his party’s messaging and focus more directly on issues dominating public debate, including economic pressure, migration, and security.

The elections are widely interpreted as an early test for the coalition between the CDU and SPD at the federal level. While the CDU managed to hold its ground, the weakening of the SPD and the collapse of the Greens in NRW add pressure on the national government to respond more effectively to growing voter frustration.

Runoffs And Local Governance Ahead

The vote decided around 20,000 municipal offices, including mayors, council members, and county leaders across nearly 400 towns and cities. In races where no candidate achieved an outright majority, runoffs will take place later this month. The CDU continues to dominate the local political landscape, currently holding around 170 mayoral posts, while the SPD controls about 80. The Greens, FDP, and Left Party remain far behind in direct executive positions.

Although the AfD gained significant momentum, it has not yet secured control of any city halls in NRW. Still, the prospect of AfD candidates advancing to runoff elections in several municipalities marks a new stage in the party’s expansion at the local level. Observers note that while these results do not immediately alter the federal balance of power, they reflect a shifting political mood that could influence national debates in the months ahead.